How long will £100k, £200k or £300k last in retirement?
It's one of the most Googled retirement questions in the UK, usually typed at about 11pm, shortly after opening a pension statement. And the honest answer is the one nobody wants: "it depends".
Annoying, isn't it? So this guide does the next best thing. It shows what it depends on, with some sums simple enough to do on the back of a biscuit wrapper, and then points you to the calculator to try your own figures.
The back-of-a-biscuit-wrapper answer
Ignore investment growth. Ignore inflation. Ignore the taxman (just this once; he won't be offended). A pot lasts as many years as you can divide it by what you take out each year:
- £100,000 at £10,000 a year lasts 10 years
- £200,000 at £10,000 a year lasts 20 years
- £300,000 at £15,000 a year lasts 20 years
Real life is kinder in one way, because money left invested usually grows, and meaner in another, because prices rise and your £10,000 buys a bit less each year. The two partly cancel out, like a good cake and a brisk walk.
A slightly cleverer illustration
The table assumes your money stays invested in a balanced mix, growing at 4% a year (the FRC's AS TM1 rate for that kind of fund), with charges of 0.75% and inflation of 2.5%. The yearly amount rises with prices so it keeps its buying power. That leaves real growth of roughly 0.71% a year after charges. Not thrilling, but it adds up.
Worked example: Years a pot might last, steady growth, before tax
| Pot | £5,000 a year | £10,000 a year | £15,000 a year | £20,000 a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| £100,000 | 21 years | 10 years | 6 years | 5 years |
| £200,000 | 46 years | 21 years | 13 years | 10 years |
| £300,000 | 77 years | 33 years | 21 years | 15 years |
Amounts are in today's money, taken at the start of each year. The table ignores tax and assumes identical growth every year, which has never once happened in the history of markets. It's an illustration, not a projection.
Same assumptions as the table above: steady growth, before tax. An illustration, not a projection.
Two things jump out. Growth stretches a pot further than simple division suggests, especially when you take out less. And the amount you take matters more than anything: double the yearly amount and the pot lasts less than half as long. Pots are like biscuit tins: the faster the raid, the sooner the crumbs.
What changes the answer
Markets have moods
Markets don't deliver a polite 4% every year. They go up, down, sideways, and occasionally off a cliff before climbing back up. A fall early in retirement, while you're also taking money out, does more lasting damage than the same fall ten years later. You end up selling more at low prices, and those bits aren't there for the recovery. The jargon is sequence risk; the feeling is "oh no". It's why the calculator runs 1,000 different futures rather than one tidy average.
The taxman, back from his break
Usually a quarter of a pension can come out tax-free (capped at £268,275 across all your pensions). The rest is taxed as income, along with your State Pension. The first £12,570 of income each year is usually tax-free, then basic-rate tax of 20% applies. So £10,000 of spending money can need more than £10,000 out of the pot. Our guide to drawdown and tax has the gory details, minus the gore.
The State Pension: the reliable friend
For most people the State Pension does a lot of the heavy lifting. The full new State Pension is £241.30 a week, about £12,548 a year, it rises every year, and it never runs out. Once it starts, your pot can relax a little. The years before it starts are often when a pot gets hit hardest; see our guide to the bridge years.
Spending changes shape
Plenty of retirees spend more in the early, adventurous years and less once the campervan's been sold. If that sounds like you, a pot can last longer than a flat-spending illustration suggests. More in why spending often falls with age.
How long you'll be around
A pot that lasts 20 years is splendid at 80 and less splendid at 65. Many people live well past average life expectancy (and the official tables tend to underestimate it). By default the calculator plans to an age you have about a 1 in 4 chance of reaching. Optimism, but with a spreadsheet.
Try your own figures
The calculator brings it all together: market ups and downs, inflation, tax, your State Pension and your spending shape. It shows how often the money lasts across 1,000 futures. Have a go with:
Then fiddle with the retirement age, income or investment mix and watch what moves. Fiddling is encouraged.
The short version
How long a pot lasts depends mostly on how much you take out, then on markets (and their timing), tax, when your State Pension starts and how long you live. Simple division gives a rough floor. A projection with lots of possible futures gives a fuller picture.
For free, impartial guidance, MoneyHelper and Pension Wise (for over-50s with a defined contribution pension) are backed by the government.
Sources
- FRC, AS TM1 accumulation rates
- GOV.UK, The new State Pension: what you'll get
- GOV.UK, Tax on your private pension: what's tax-free
- GOV.UK, Income Tax rates and allowances